Mediterranean Cyclones and Meteoalarm Warnings for Sofia: October-April 2010–2019

Abstract

Mediterranean cyclones significantly impact the region, causing severe weather events like heavy rainfall, flooding, and windstorms thus posing risks to densely populated areas. Despite their importance, variability in cyclone tracking methodologies and datasets contributes to differences in reported frequencies. In this work we use Jenkinson–Collison Type (JCT26) objective circulation classification to quantify the role of Mediterranean cyclones for weather warnings issued for the city of Sofia in the period 2010–2019. Four JCT26 circulation types occurred in 50% of days in Sofia; they are South-West (SW – 20%), AntiCyclonic (AC – 15%), Cyclonic (C – 12%), and North (N – 10%). During the winter months, C was associated with the highest number of severe weather warnings namely 33%. Cyclonic directional circulation types have 23% of the warnings while SW and AC have below 5% warnings. Snow, rain, cold, and wind were the most common types of warnings issued during this period. Between 2010 and 2019, monthly averaged snow warnings peak was in January with 11 yellow code warnings. Rain warnings were issued in all winter months, with April having the maximum of nine days with warnings and March the minimum of two days with warnings.