Implementation of Hidden Infections in the SEIR Model Analysis of the Omicron Variant Spread in Bulgaria

Authors

  • Ognyan Kounchev Institute of Mathematics and Informatics, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences
  • Georgi Boyadzhiev Institute of Mathematics and Informatics, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences and University of Architecture, Civil Engineering and Geodesy, Bulgaria
  • Georgi Simeonov Institute of Mathematics and Informatics, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences
  • Metodi Kunchev Military Medical Academy, Bulgaria
  • Zhana Kuncheva Optima Partners, UK

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.7546/CRABS.2023.06.16

Keywords:

mathematical modelling in epidemiology, prediction, Covid- 19, Omicron variant

Abstract

In this paper we study the impact of the hidden cases of Covid-19 spread in Bulgaria by means of the SEIR model, in the period December 15, 2021 – until March 2022. In particular, the numerical experiments based on the hidden cases till mid-January, provide a forecast of the peak of the infectious curve about February 8, 2022, and reaching the maximum of about 90 000 cases. The forecast shows that end of the epidemics (in Bulgaria) would be in mid-May, 2022. This forecast is compared to the previous forecasts based on the same data excluding hidden cases; they have shown that the peak will be about February 28, reaching about 75 000 cases and will vanish until end of May. As seen in Fig. 3, our forecast of the end of the particular wave of epidemics shows just two weeks difference with what happened in real life – the wave ended in the first week of June. It is curious, that though the peak of the curve in the
hidden cases approach has shifted to February 8, the cumulative number of cases in both approaches is nearly the same. More details on the methods used in the present paper and the non-hidden cases study, are provided as well.

Author Biographies

Ognyan Kounchev, Institute of Mathematics and Informatics, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences

Mailing Address:
Institute of Mathematics and Informatics,
Bulgarian Academy of Sciences
Akad. G. Bonchev St, Bl. 8
1113 Sofia, Bulgaria

E-mail: kounchev@math.bas.bg

Georgi Boyadzhiev, Institute of Mathematics and Informatics, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences and University of Architecture, Civil Engineering and Geodesy, Bulgaria

Mailing Address:
Institute of Mathematics and Informatics,
Bulgarian Academy of Sciences
Akad. G. Bonchev St, Bl. 8
1113 Sofia, Bulgaria

and

University of Architecture,
Civil Engineering and Geodesy
1 H. Smirnenski Blvd
1046 Sofia, Bulgaria

E-mail: gpb@math.bas.bg

Georgi Simeonov, Institute of Mathematics and Informatics, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences

Mailing Address:
Institute of Mathematics and Informatics,
Bulgarian Academy of Sciences
Akad. G. Bonchev St, Bl. 8
1113 Sofia, Bulgaria

E-mail: georgesimeo@gmail.com

Metodi Kunchev, Military Medical Academy, Bulgaria

Mailing Address:
Military Medical Academy
3 St. Georgi Sofiiski St
1606 Sofia, Bulgaria

E-mail: mkunchev@yahoo.com

Zhana Kuncheva, Optima Partners, UK

Mailing Address:
Optima Partners
Edinburgh, UK

E-mail: zhana.kuncheva@optimapartners.co.uk

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Published

29-06-2023

How to Cite

[1]
O. Kounchev, G. Boyadzhiev, G. Simeonov, M. Kunchev, and Z. Kuncheva, “Implementation of Hidden Infections in the SEIR Model Analysis of the Omicron Variant Spread in Bulgaria”, C. R. Acad. Bulg. Sci. , vol. 76, no. 6, pp. 953–961, Jun. 2023.

Issue

Section

Medicine