SEIR Model Analysis of the Omicron Variant Spread in Bulgaria – an Empirical Study
Keywords:mathematical modelling, epidemiology, prediction, Covid-19, Omicron
We provide a study of the Covid-19 spread in Bulgaria in the period starting December 15, 2021 until early February, 2022. In particular, we provide predictive scenarios for the peak of the pandemic. Based on these scenarios, we estimate the risks in terms of fatalities in the case no restrictive measures are imposed. The main challenge is distinguishing the influence of the Delta variant which is still dominating in December, 2021, while Omicron becomes dominant in early January, 2022.
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LicenseCopyright (c) 2023 Proceedings of the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences
Copyright (c) 2022 Proceedings of the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences
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