Statistical Model of Temperature Anomalies Using a New Instability Index

Abstract

A statistical model (relationship) between a new circulation instability index and the registered temperature anomalies in two regions of Europe has been proposed and tested. The average values of this index, calculated at levels of 850 hPa and 500 hPa, were used as predictors in the modelling of temperature anomalies by months for the period 2011–2020. The average monthly values of temperature and geopotential during this period were utilized to calculate the index and anomalies in these regions. For each of them, the following statistical characteristics were calculated: correlation, root mean square error, and the coefficient of determination (R-squared). They evaluate the performance of the statistical model. The obtained results demonstrate the principal applicability of the instability index in a similar way as the well established circulation estimator North Atlantic Oscillation.